How likely is it that a seed phrase will be guessed or cracked?

In the world of cryptocurrencies, security plays a crucial role. Your seed phrase is one of the most important components to protect your digital assets. But how likely is it that someone will actually guess or crack your seed phrase? In this blog, we dive into the statistics, discuss the risks and provide tips on how to best secure your seed phrase, including the use of a passphrase.

What is a seed phrase?

A seed phrase, also known as a recovery phrase, is a string of 12, 18 or 24 words that your wallet generates when creating a new account. These words are often generated via the BIP-39 standard, which uses a word list of 2048 possible words. With a seed phrase, you can always access your wallet even if you lose or damage your device.

The probability of guessing a seed phrase

The probability of someone randomly guessing your seed phrase is extremely small. To better understand this, we need to look at the math behind seed phrases:

A 24-word seed phrase has approximately

29.642.774.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 mogelijke combinaties. (2,96 x 10^79)

Even if every person on Earth (8 billion people) had 125 wallets, the probability of a brute-force attack striking an existing wallet remains about

1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (1 in 10^68)

Even with a supercomputer capable of testing 10 billion combinations per second, the

3,171,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years (3.17 x 10^42)

To find one active seed phrase. By comparison, the universe is only 13,800,000,000 years old.

Brute force attacks and reality

While these numbers are impressive, the theory of brute force attacks – in which an attacker tries random combinations until he finds the right one – continues to be discussed often. Even with the most powerful computers in the world, it would take billions of years to go through just a fraction of the possible combinations.

According to experts, cracking a 12-word seed phrase would still take many trillions of years with current technology. In reality, this is practically impossible, especially if you also consider the correct order of the words.

Using a passphrase

An additional layer of security that is often overlooked is the use of a passphrase. In addition to your seed phrase, you can set a passphrase (an additional password) to make your wallet even more secure. This is an optional feature supported by many wallets and ensures that even if someone has your seed phrase, they still need the passphrase to access your funds.

Adding a passphrase creates an entirely new set of private keys, which means your seed phrase is worthless without the passphrase. Even a simple passphrase of a few characters can increase security exponentially, making it even less likely to be cracked.

What is the safest way to protect your seed phrase?

Although the chances of your seed phrase being guessed are extremely low, there are some steps you can take to further improve your security:

1. Use a hardware wallet: Hardware wallets are one of the safest ways to store your seed phrase and private keys. They store your information offline, making it virtually impossible to be hacked.
2. Keep your seed phrase safe: Don’t store your seed phrase digitally. Put it on a physical seed phrase backup and keep it in a safe place, such as a safe. Avoid photos or digital notes, as they are vulnerable to hacks.
3. Use a passphrase: As mentioned earlier, a passphrase adds an extra layer of security. Make sure you remember the passphrase carefully, because if you lose it, you won’t be able to recover your wallet either.
4. Keep your seed phrase in multiple locations: Consider splitting up your seed phrase and keeping it in different secure locations. This will make it harder for malicious parties to find your full seed phrase.

Conclusion

The chances of someone guessing or cracking your seed phrase are astronomically small. With current technology, it is virtually impossible to crack a seed phrase via brute force. However, it is still important to store your seed phrase in a secure manner and possibly use a passphrase for extra protection.

Cryptocurrencies offer a lot of freedom, but that freedom also comes with the responsibility of properly securing your digital assets. By taking the right precautions, such as using a hardware wallet and adding a passphrase, you can confidently protect your investments from malicious parties. This will keep you one step ahead of hackers and ensure that your cryptocurrencies are safe.